Explanations here suffer difficulty even at the fundamental level of "why do voters vote at all?" let alone in a particular way in some context with different backgrounds and aspirations. I think it's well understood that calling elections is incredibly difficult even using our best data science. So accuracy is likely not what pundits are doing if they're at all smart.
I think we should explain these bad explanations as aiming to do some of exactly what you complain about:
1) "Many of the pundits who do this for a living have already posted their early election post-mortems via article or tweet. I suspect that some have already secured a book deal with a few draft chapters talking about why Harris lost."
i.e., this is your bread and butter, and you are rewarded by your patrons for entertainment or confirmation of neuroses over accuracy.
2) "All that matters is that it sounds somewhat plausible that the losing candidate could’ve done better by being more like you and your audience."
i.e., it is time to harvest the clout that the last cycle's darlings just lost.
That's my cynical view, standing on the shoulders of your survey.
Explanations here suffer difficulty even at the fundamental level of "why do voters vote at all?" let alone in a particular way in some context with different backgrounds and aspirations. I think it's well understood that calling elections is incredibly difficult even using our best data science. So accuracy is likely not what pundits are doing if they're at all smart.
I think we should explain these bad explanations as aiming to do some of exactly what you complain about:
1) "Many of the pundits who do this for a living have already posted their early election post-mortems via article or tweet. I suspect that some have already secured a book deal with a few draft chapters talking about why Harris lost."
i.e., this is your bread and butter, and you are rewarded by your patrons for entertainment or confirmation of neuroses over accuracy.
2) "All that matters is that it sounds somewhat plausible that the losing candidate could’ve done better by being more like you and your audience."
i.e., it is time to harvest the clout that the last cycle's darlings just lost.
That's my cynical view, standing on the shoulders of your survey.